Crowd behavior: are we really unaware?

The recent disaster at the Duisburg Love Parade is one of the many occurrences where authorities and event planners claim that they could not have foreseen the tragic events. 21 People were crushed to death during a mass panic in an access tunnel, more were injured and the event was called off.
Although I can understand the organization's position from a legal point of view and maybe understand the position where they wouldn't have a clue how to anticipate on such events, what the hell were the event planners thinking? This is not the first or only event that resulted in casualties due to unplanned mass/group behavior and likely not the last one either.
The research for human predictability has already resulted in many groundbreaking insights and mathematical algorithms to enable crows simulators to pretty accurately predict outcome of predefined scenarios. Unfortunately - as usual - such insights are either known to the happy few who are researching these topics or lie dormant in an academic paper.
The occasional team arises to build a software solution for such types of simulations but currently the most known solution would be the traffic simulation. Why? Because it is commercially viable and can be used to market a company's 'green value'. Understanding traffic flows can enable the company to commercialize services that help the drivers to avoid the bottlenecks, causing less queues, pollution,... Basically, it helps the company get better in terms of image and turnover and the driver benefits from it.
How about the pedestrians?
How about the micro-environment of an event, a campus, a city block in development,...?
Wouldn't it be good to provide the designers as much info as possible about how people will likely behave in those environments under normal and less-normal circumstances?
And the BIG question is: who will pay for it? The car drivers pay for the live service on their satellite navigation system because they can actually directly benefit from it themselves. How about the new house owners that bought their home in a new development?  How would you rate the value of knowing that your area will be able to handle the mobility stress?  How much would you pay to be sure that your kids will be safe on the sidewalk when walking to the shop on a busy day?  Will the pedestrian zone be able to handle the amount of pedestrians in all situations?
How about the city planners that are designing a new urban development? How do they decide on pedestrian areas, pavement width, bottlenecks...? Where do they get their data from and how accurate is it still in 2010 as updates of such data will likely involve a cost not directly covered by any commercial benefit resulting from the design itself. After all, when you buy a residence in a new development you assume correctly that the designers have covered all that.
I believe such simulation service should be available to all designers AND the public. Designers will have the obvious benefit of being able to reduce the risk of disaster, insurance claims... and enhance the visitor's experience. The public will be able to check out scenarios for new traffic lights, pedestrian crossings, parking lots, wider curbs, pedestrian zones... and have well prepared proposals for the city planning commission.
Over the next months I will be covering this in my professional blog as I am investigating the possibilities of providing mobility simulation services to the wider audience.

stay tuned :-)

Cat and frog games

For the last couple of weeks the temperature has gone up summer-style and the beasties are aware of it.  Our pond has its annual tenant ... Mr Frog, and our cat is sincerely interested in him.  Maybe they have some kind of chemistry going on as both creatures keep each other on edge.
Whenever the frog starts calling, the cat comes over.  Whenever the cat is sitting at the pond, the frog stops calling.  One way of interpretation is that the frog calls the cat which in turn shows up very confused as the frog is neatly tucked away in the plants ...

However I believe this is not the true dynamic of the relationship.  So now and again, we see the cat running with the frog in his mouth ... cat brings frog to us as if to show off his predator skills.
The frog's role in this is to keep stunningly still and cold.  The latter is not much of a problem anyhow.

So we chase away the cat, carefully pick up the frog and put him on the waterplants after which he quickly paddles away to recover.

Can't help but feel as if they're playing us ... today I had the impression the frog was chuckling.

Flying Car Scenarios

The initial concept of a flying car is attributed to Glenn Curtiss in 1907.  His Autoplane had three wings and was able to hop, not fly.  Walter Waterman was the first to actually have his Whatsit do some flying.
Since the mid '50s, more people have been trying to escape the mere ground-level commute likely because advances in technology and thinking triggered the imagination.  It was the new vision for transportation in the 21st century and a common feature of science fiction stories.

Yesterday, my friend Lisa K. shared this link [click here] of a new development and I cannot but wonder about the impact such vehicle would have on us.
Being professionally involved in transportation and mobility, I am always critical about the changes such new means of transportation will require.  As men has demonstrated for centuries, we don't lack creativity or technological prowess, we do however limit our thinking to the product itself and forget to consider the world it will be used in.  Basically I love being the devil's advocate.

Changes imposed by any type of new transportation relate to:

• Size of the vehicle
• Use of the vehicle
• Maneuverability
• Modes change requirements
• Driver/Pilot behavior
• Infrastructure requirements

Now comes the fun part: what scenarios can we imagine that will irritate the user to the point that they consider selling the car again :-) 
The advertisements will announce new glory, success and respect topped with limitless freedom as the car can take off literally anywhere.  You will be one of the 'chosen ones' to own and use it for your commute.  The ads however will not hint that the club of 'chosen ones' will in the end be the whole nation, just as the '60s car ads showed plenty of room on the highway.

Scenario 1: Mr McFly [1] hops in the car to work.
He greets his neighbor who works in the same building and who is driving a motorcycle.  Being able to fly should save McFly considerable time.  As McFly isn't the only gadget-aware professional, he is stuck in a queue towards the take-off strip as the cars get into the bottleneck at the entrance.  After about 45 min he can finally take off 60 secs after the car in from of him is in the air.
Finally he takes to the sky only to hear that his arrival at his destination is delayed because of the air queue of waiting-to-land cars ... they indeed need to land on a limited number of strips.
Circling the airport, he vaguely remembers the ads ...
Finally on the ground and after the folding of the wings process is complete, he speeds to the office only to notice that he's 30 min late and stressed already.
Scenario 2: Ms McFly takes the kids to football.
Euhm, wel actually she takes one kid at the time as the both of them don't fit in the car if they need to take their gear with them.
Scenario 3: Government will not allow people to take off and land anywhere so dedicated zones are imposed
Although the car can take off anywhere, restrictions are posed by government to ensure the utmost safety.  No problem at first as 'flying is cool' but in the end it doesn't make much sense to travel the 15 miles to a family reunion is you drive 6 miles to the nearest take-off, fly 19 miles to the destination landing spot and drive for another 5 miles to the reunion.  Take into account the typical 2 kids and scenario 2 will make the trip a nightmare.
Scenario 4: Miss McFly wants to go to the mall with some friends.  Even if she can outsmart scenario 2 by having everyone use their own transportation, would she be able to park the larger than usual vehicle?  It does not have the amount of transparency (read: windows) that she was used to.  Set aside this issue, let's hope her purchases will fit in the car as it is hard pressed to fix something on the aerodynamic roof (or god forbid to consider towing gear at the back).
Scenario 5: Grandma McFly got a flying car for her 60st birthday ... very happy she tries to take off and (chose whatever option you prefer)
- she gets airsick
- seems to have a less steady hand than assumed while flying
- has no sense of positional awareness which is even worse in the air
- doesn't understand the satnav
- needs to pee while circling the airport ... will she dive to the nearest toilet?
Scenario 6: McFly's grandchildren visit McFly on his 80th birthday.  They are used to air transportation and have no problem commuting using the same sensory skills as a fighter pilot, dodging the emergency services, speeders... but they do wonder who took the vote to have all the farmland and forests flattened to fit the expanding grid of airports.  And why didn't they think about the constant hum overhead, the floating traffic pods used to control air traffic and reroute the swarms of shadow-casting bees ...

However much I like the idea and excitement of air transportation, this invention will keep us busy for decades and maybe one day - when we all can demonstrate to be able to drive the roads without any accidents - we could consider taking to the skies.
Technologically, the Transition® Roadable Aircraft by Terrafugia shows we can do it.

[1] I just couldn't resist